Portfolio Manager Perspective
As We See It – Quarterly
October 2024
2024 Third Quarter Update
It was a solid quarter for equity markets, with positive returns for each of the past three months. Results were fueled by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates during a period of low unemployment and positive earnings growth. This created a favorable environment for stocks, though concerns about the economy and escalating geopolitical turmoil persist. Headlines have been dominated by world events and national politics. History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, with virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
July 2024
2024 Second Quarter Update
As we enter the second half of the year, we continue to watch the recent drivers of the market’s performance and wanted to share our thoughts on what the market may be pricing in for the largest outperformers. For most of the year, the firms most closely associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have been on the sharpest ascent, and expectations for their prospects climb higher almost every day.
April 2024
2024 First Quarter Update
We are encouraged by the broader gains in the U.S. equity markets during the last two quarters as the perceived likelihood of a 2024 recession receded. The economy and corporate earnings appear to be on stable ground as well. However, we also see caution signs for 2024. As before, these quarterly client reports are now available for prospective investors as well.
January 2024
2023 Fourth Quarter Update
Our client reports are now also available for prospective investors. 2023 ended strong, with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% for the quarter and 26.3% for the year. Aside from a select fee US-based mega-cap growth companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, and the like), stock price performance was a mixed bag and generally much more muted.
January 2024
Opportunities in Healthcare?
The healthcare sector’s decline in 2023 was rooted in three factors: 1) A hangover from the previous higher use of healthcare during the Covid-19 pandemic; 2) Concerns about governmental changes in healthcare coverage for 2024; and 3) The emergence of the GLP-1 class of drugs, often used for weight loss, with the brand names Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and others.
October 2023
2023 Third Quarter Update
This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. Over the last 50+ years, August and September have been the worst-performing months (on average) for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the third quarter of 2023 closed with a change in direction for the market. What was the change, and why?
July 2023
2023 Second Quarter Update
This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index grew 16.9% during the first half of 2023. This equity rally, however, was spurred by valuations in a select group of primarily large-cap stocks. Why the divergence?
June 2022
“Are We There Yet?”
– Every little kid on every road trip ever…
Investors are focused on when the current market decline will end. Unfortunately, unlike the parent driving the car to a destination, the markets do not have a defined destination.
February 2022
Valuation
Whenever the markets become volatile, suspicions grow that the end of a bull market may be near. History may provide a good example of what might happen when speculation runs rampant in the market – as it has been recently.